Punt to Win
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here is the result from Saturday, 5th. July, when the $250,000 Grand National Steeple and the $200,000 final of the Listed VRC Winter Championship was held at Flemington.
Rosehill: Track Dead
R2 $70,000 3YO and upward. Rst86. Handicap.
Here are the results from Saturday, 28th. June, when the $250,000 Grand National Hurdle was held at Flemington.
Rosehill: Track Slow
R1 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Rst81. Handicap.
R2 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
R3 $70,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Rst81. Handicap.
This edition of Punt to Win:
You Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.
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