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19/9/2015 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class


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We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses are handicapped with 60kg. (61kg. with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

This table below shows recent results for horses that carried 60kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a bookmaker starting price of $10.00 or shorter. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We have eliminated any races where more than three horses carried at least 60kg. with a starting price of $10.00 or shorter. We're updating each week from the main Saturday horse race meetings held in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.


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Rosehill - 12/9/2015
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Thunder Lady
60.5kg.
7
1800
$9.50
8/9
Sebrina
60kg.
12
1500
$8.50
13/14
Berrimilla
60kg.
2
1400
$10.00
3/11
Randwick - 5/9/2015
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Forget
60kg.
4
1400
$8.50
2/7
 


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You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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