19/10/2001 edition

Eliminate Risks
Bet for Value

Storm Zero caused a flutter

Backers of $1.70 "good thing" Storm Zero must have been more than a little worried last Saturday at Rosehill.

Resuming from a spell and with top weight of 57kg. in a restricted 3YO Handicap, Storm Zero missed the start by a length. Then, just as he was getting into his stride he had to be checked off the heels of another runner. The result was he settled last, well out of his ground.

Storm Zero unleashed a very strong finish, and won by just under a length. He paid as little as $1.50 for the win on SuperTab. He was clearly under the odds in the eight horse field at only $1.50. You have to win a race like that two out of every three times just to break even. Doesn't sound too good, does it?

Golden rule of punting

One of the golden rules of successful long term punting is to never take short odds about horses resuming from a spell.

Punters of Storm Zero broke that rule and were very lucky to escape. They weren't so lucky later in the day.

The third at Cheltenham was a Fillies and Mares restricted handicap over 1000 metres. The promising David Hall trained three year old filly, Common Smytzer who had run a big race in Group company at Flemington in March before being sent for a spell was first up from that spell.

Common Smytzer was sent out the $1.90 favourite in the field of 10. She ran a nice first up race and finished a close second. No good though, for punters prepared to take the skinny odds on her after a seven months' spell. The winner of the race was five year old mare Palagia, who resumed from a spell of five months. She paid $14.60!

Common Smytzer was involved in two other disasters in that race.

1. Punters who backed her on SuperTab for a place were refunded their stake money. SuperTab was prepare to take their stake money if the filly did not finish in the first three, but refused to pay the punters one cent in profit when their bet won. regular readers to this site will know by now how we regularly criticise such an unethical practice, and how we describe it as "legalised theft'.

What else can it be when a bet type is allowed which can only lose but not win?

2. The trifecta on SuperTab paid a pathetic $109.30. Yet we're talking about a $14.00 winner in the field of 10 runners!! Short priced horses absolutely wreck trifectas.

Thirty minutes earlier in the day, outstanding five year old horse Falvelon, who had won 12 of his 21 starts and only missed a place three times, resumed from a three months' spell at Caulfield in the Group 2 Weight for Age Schillaci Stakes. He won the race first up last year and again looked an outstanding chance over the 1000 metres, even more so considering Damien Oliver had the ride.

Falvelon was sent out the $2.50 favourite - tote punters took odds on. He ran a strong race, but clearly needed the run and finished third, beaten one and a half lengths by New South Wales horse Mistegic who led all the way and refused to stop.

1000 metres races are notorious for upset results. Three year old gelding Mistegic also caused a boilover three starts earlier over 1000 metres when on August 4 he was first up from a spell and won a Group 2 race at Randwick starting at $41.00.

At Caulfield the odds were not quite so generous. There was a bit of specking in the betting ring and Mistegic firmed from $17.00 to start at $13.00.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Tote punters get more for your punting dollar
What a racing media blooper!
Beware - media hyped jockeys cost punters money
Why bet in this race?
Was this the worst bet of the day?
Another Gai Waterhouse trained favourite
And more...
For our best information become a member.

Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with bookmaker betting ring prices.

Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.