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20/8/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from last Saturday, August 14.

Rosehill: Track Good
R2 $50,000 3YO Fillies. Sc1. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Canny Princess
Result: third
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: For Your Eyes
Starting price: $51.00
Top fluctuation: $51.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $20.50
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Tim Martin

Moonee Valley: Track Heavy
R1 $50,000 3YO. Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Vintner
Result: third
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Tony McEvoy
Winner: Anyways Lucy
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Greg Childs
Trainer: Bevan Laming

Eagle Farm: Track Good
R1 $24,000 Fillies & Mares. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Shysu
Result: second
Starting price: $1.85
Top fluctuation: $1.85
Jockey: Chris Whiteley
Trainer: Rex Lipp
Winner: Air Of Grace
Starting price: $21.00
Top fluctuation: $21.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $21.90
Jockey: Brad Stewart
Trainer: Karen Quinn

This edition of Punt to Win:
Apprentice jockeys - and horse racing handicapping
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 13/8/2004
Punt to Win index


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It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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