20/9/2002 edition

Handicapping Tips

Here's a very interesting posting from the Horse Racing Forum by valued contributor "osulldj" on September 11.

Barriers

"Statistically speaking, on average barriers ... make no difference at all from a profit perspective. Inside barriers have a slightly better win strike, but because everyone favours those barriers the price is lower. Outside barriers have a slightly lower strike rate but the average winning price is much better.

All in all, on average across all races, barriers seem to make jack difference to the end profit result. Of course this doesn't mean the same will apply to your own betting results. On a case by case basis barriers need to be considered in the context of the race under question.

Racing is far to complex to make broadbrush statements about the universal importance of any one factor. In some races barriers are extremely important and in others they are irrelevant."

Weight

"Now onto a different tangent.... In regards to weight, my study has shown that the linear effect implied by 1.5kg. equals one length at all weight levels isn't quiet right. Once a horse gets above 54.5kg. additional weight will slow them down and the 1.5kg equals one length is as good an assumption as any.

However once a horse gets below 54.5kg additional weight off doesn't increase its speed/ability. Regardless of weight a horse can only run at a certain speed over a race distance. It's my belief that a horse can run at its maximum race speed with 54.5kg. just as easy as it can with 52.5kg. The slowing effect doesn't take place until they get above 54.5kg.

I have come to these viewpoints after technology assisted analysis of thousands of good quality races and to use one example, take Innovation Girl. She ran good pace adjusted speed in her win on 24/8/02 carrying 57.5kg. In the Ascot Vale she was dropping to 53kg.

Traditional weight theory has it that she would have increased her overall speed by three lengths and absolutely blitzed her opposition. However if you examine the implied speed she would have run if she sped up by three lengths on that performance you would realise that it was a unrealistic for her.

As it turned out her pace adjusted speed was a little better in the Ascot Vale but nowhere near the levels implied by a 4.5kg weight drop. It's my view that even if she only dropped to 54.5kg. in the Ascot Vale she still would have run the same speed and won by the same margin. Of course there are all sorts of other race factors that could have influenced that result and she is just one example.

However I can guarantee that when carrying 53kg. for as long as she races she will never reach the speed implied by a 4.5kg. weight drop from her performance with 57.5kg. The same thing could be examined with Bel Esprit who has been running sensational speed with 57.5kg. He drops to 51kg. and traditional weight theory says he should increase his speed/ability by over four lengths. Is that going to happen? I say of course not!

I suggest that it would be a near physical impossibility for a horse to run four lengths quicker than he has been recently. No doubt he will improve some speed, but I will only be treating his weight drop as 57.5kg. to 54.5kg. not the 51kg. he is listed to carry...Something to think about anyway!"

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