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22/2/2002 edition

John Hawkes
Big Priced Winners

John Hawkes - absolutely amazing.

He did it again at the weekend.

On Saturday the John Hawkes' trained five year old mare Youhadyourwarning resumed from a spell of over four months in a Listed fillies and mares event over 1400 metres at Randwick.

In her last campaign she won a Class 1 at Hawkesbury followed by a midweek restricted race at Warwick Farm over 2400 metres. But Youhadyourwarning won first up on Saturday and paid $27.20.

Then on Sunday at Flemington John Hawkes' trained four year old gelding Adolescence was first up in an Open Handicap over 1410 metres. It was a shocker of a race with half the field of 14 resuming from a spell, including a number of very handy stayers like Spirit Of Westbury, Yammer and Saboteur.

Adolescence had only three wins from 23 starts and a pretty ordinary first up record. The horse didn't think about that. He stormed home to win and paid $29.70.

But what were punters doing taking only $3.00 about Tears Royal in the race? You are asking for trouble in a 1400 metres race, an ideal distance for stayers, when plenty of them are resuming and are basically wild cards in the race.

Ha Ha back

After putting in an absolute two weeks earlier Ha Ha hit back with vengeance in the Apollo Stakes, a Group 2 Weight for Age race over 1400 metres, at Randwick last Saturday.

Tote punters on Super Tab got a paltry dividend of $2.10 compared to $2.60 freely available in the Randwick bookmakers' betting ring. That's why tote punters who back short priced horses face a near impossible task to keep their heads above water.

Bookies can lose on the race when a short priced favourite wins. The more the horse is supported on the tote on raceday the worse the payout to every tote punter on it that day. That way the tote still wins on the race.

The Apollo Stakes also saw the return of outstanding five year old gelding Fairway from a long injury break. Fairway had done a lot of work in the lead up, was primed for the race, showed a lot of early dash and led.

Unfortunately Fairway suffered the same tendon injury that put him out of action for 15 months which explains why he folded and finished a bad last. He has now been retired.

Fairway was travelling so well that if he had not injured himself again there was every chance he would have won the race. Remember, he did defeat champion mare Sunline in the Turnbull Stakes in 2000 after an epic battle down the straight.

Next pages
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Best horses to bet
Money talks
Future winners at big odds
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Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the minimum prices you should have received.
Make sure you do!


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Honey Rider 4.20 6.00 56% $180
Glenn 4.00 5.50 50% $150
Barkada 4.70 6.00 35% $130
Ha Ha 2.10 2.60 46% $50

Back Tote Longshots?


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Regicide 22.40 36.00 $1360
Noble Win 11.40 14.20 $280

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