22/9/2000 edition

Was Sunline a Trifecta Standout?

With Sunline a raging favourite punters were advised by some media tipsters on the Saturday morning of the race to obtain value by taking Sunline as a standout for first in the trifecta.

You cannot miraculously inject value into a horse that pays $1.20 on the tote for your dollar outlay when it wins. The tote is not going to run at a loss on the race. That's the only way value will be created by taking Sunline as a standout to win in your trifecta when 95% of your fellow tote punters have done exactly the same thing.

The best collect for the Sunline trifecta was just $35.70 on Super Tab. Very poor odds considering there were 12 horses in the field and the horse that ran third, Citra's Prince was a bolter and paid up to $5.10 on the tote for the place. The chances were that you had to outlay more than you won and you had to rely on a long shot finishing third to collect a dividend of $35.70.

Put simply, trying to inject value into a $1.20 winner on the tote is like having a drink from an empty glass. It cannot be done.

To win on the tote you must play the game differently from the majority of tote punters otherwise you are guaranteed to get way under the true odds when you collect which means you must lose long term. Just about every tote punter used Sunline as a standout in a trifecta. That means you will get way under the true odds because the tote is not going to lose if the punters are right. It just reduces the payout to the punters. The more popular the win is with punters the poorer the tote value for punters.

Paradoxically there was a way to get value from Sunline.
A successful punting acquaintance always looks very carefully at trifecta opportunities when just about everyone sees a horse as an absolute standout. So he took a 3x6xfield trifecta. He did not take Sunline to win. He reasoned that because just about every punter was taking Sunline as a standout to win in the mistaken belief that they could create value, if by any chance she lost that would wipe out most trifecta combinations. As a result the payout would be way over the true odds. He lost his money this time but he doesn't care because he is well in front over the long term.  

Next: Punt to Win 15/9/2000

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