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22/10/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 15th. October.

Caulfield Cup Day: Track Good

R1 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Millie Rose
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
Jockey: Nicholas Ryan
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Fun Love
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $11.20
Jockey: Noel Jolly
Trainer: Neil Jolly

Morphettville: Track Good

R2 $20,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Oahu
Result: first

Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Richard Jolly

R4 $23,000 Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Absolute Heaven
Result: first

Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: Daniel Clarken

This edition of Punt to Win:
Moonee Valley Cox Plate Day
Get those betting odds
Moonee Valley quick pick horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Caulfield Cup Day
Betting tips from the track: Randwick
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 15/10/2005
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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