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23/6/2007 edition

Race Caller Betting Tips
and
Form Analysis:

Here are some reasons why every so often we bring to the public's notice what race callers say:

1. Race callers tend to be promoted as form experts by their media bosses.

2. Race callers regularly give their best tips for the day.

3. There are some race callers who when they talk about horse racing talk in a way that gives the impression that they believe they are experts on horse racing form analysis.

4. We are a race caller's captive audience whenever we listen to a race or watch a race - unless we decide to turn off the sound!

5. Race callers tend not to stick at what most of them are good at - calling races, but embellish their calls with their pet betting theories, before, after and sometimes even during the race. These betting theories are often incorrect and of no help to punters.

Here are a few examples we've heard:

1. How often do we hear a race caller tell us:

"The sting is just out of the ground for the meeting today. A little bit of cushion in the turf will help all horses."

That is just not correct. Horses are individuals and track conditions affect horses differently.

The most extreme example was the Fast Track champion of the 1980s, Vo Rogue, who won the Australian Cups at Flemington in 1989 and 1990 with his tearway leader style of racing. This gelding was an absolute wet track duffer and simply refused to race with "a little bit of cushion in the turf."

Another glaring example was the classy Sydney gelding Defier which was regularly scratched a few years ago when there was "a little bit of cushion in the turf."

2. "When the official bookmaker price of a horse stays the same in the betting ring from the time the bookies put their prices up to the time they jump, nine times out of ten those horses will run a mighty race."

Will that same horse race worse if it was supported with more money and firmed from $5.00 to $4.00? Will that same horse race worse if it eased from its opening price of $5.00 to $6.00 and then firmed to $5.00? Or if it stayed at $6.00? Of course not.

To back a horse because its official bookmaker betting ring fluctuations stayed the same in the betting is just plain superstition. It has absolutely nothing to do with intelligent form analysis.

Did the race caller have any meaningful results based on statistical research to back up the claim that "nine times out of ten those horses will run a mighty race." I think we know the answer to that one.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Race caller betting tips and form analysis
Get those betting odds
The Second Up Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 9/6/2007
Punt to Win index


2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Typhoon Zed 21.50 28.90 $74
Delta Blues 17.50 20.20 $27
Lyrical Bid 16.50 19.00 $25
Brom Felinity 13.30 15.70 $24
Dance Hero 12.60 14.90 $23
Southern Courage 16.20 18.30 $21


 

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