Punt to Win
Race Caller Betting Tips
Here are some reasons why every so often we bring to the public's notice what race callers say:
1. Race callers tend to be promoted as form experts by their
Here are a few examples we've heard:
"The sting is just out of the ground for the meeting today. A little bit of cushion in the turf will help all horses."
That is just not correct. Horses are individuals and track conditions affect horses differently.
The most extreme example was
the Fast Track champion of the 1980s, Vo Rogue, who won the Australian
Cups at Flemington in 1989 and 1990 with his tearway leader style of racing. This gelding
was an absolute wet track duffer and simply refused to race with "a little
bit of cushion in the turf."
2. "When the official bookmaker price of a horse stays the same in the betting ring from the time the bookies put their prices up to the time they jump, nine times out of ten those horses will run a mighty race."
Will that same horse race worse if it was supported with more money and firmed from $5.00 to $4.00? Will that same horse race worse if it eased from its opening price of $5.00 to $6.00 and then firmed to $5.00? Or if it stayed at $6.00? Of course not.
To back a horse because its official bookmaker betting ring fluctuations stayed the same in the betting is just plain superstition. It has absolutely nothing to do with intelligent form analysis.
Did the race caller have any meaningful results based on statistical research to back up the claim that "nine times out of ten those horses will run a mighty race." I think we know the answer to that one.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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