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23/6/2007 edition

Horse Racing Betting Strategies

Are plunge horses winning betting tips from the race track? Does it pay to follow the money?

When the horse wins, so you can judge for yourself how sensible or otherwise it is over the long term to "follow the money" on the tote, we will also include as an example the the SuperTab tote dividend. Plenty of tote punters will have collected that tote dividend. Most of them would have "followed the money" on the tote.

Are they getting big enough winning dividends when they "follow the money" on the tote to cover themselves for when "following the tote money loses"?

The jockeys and trainers are also important. You may see some jockeys and trainers consistently bringing home plunges whereas others regularly fail to deliver.

Each week we will feature tables showing just how successful the "smart money" was. To qualify a horse must have firmed 5% in the betting market. For example if a horse was backed in from $5.00 (20%) to $4.00 (25%) it will qualify. You can also check tables of betting prices and what their percentages are at Odds calculator.

Sandown Hillside
Saturday, 16th. June, 2007
No horse firmed 5% or more in the bookmakers' betting ring at Sandown. The meeting at Rosehill was abandoned due to the state of the track.
Moonee Valley
Saturday, 9th. June, 2007
No horse firmed 5% or more in the bookmakers' betting ring at Moonee Valley. The meeting at Randwick was abandoned due to the state of the track.
Sandown Lakeside
Saturday, 2nd. June, 2007

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm SuperTab
Tote
Finish
Bird Dancer
4.60 3.50 6.83% --- 3/10
Peter Mertens (jockey) Brian Jenkins (trainer)
Sovereign Miss
8.00 5.50 5.68% --- 2/14
Nicholas Hall David Brideoake
No horse firmed 5% or more in the bookmakers' betting ring at Rosehill.
Randwick
Saturday, 26th.May, 2007

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm SuperTab
Tote
Finish
Zoo City Lad
10.00 6.00 6.67% --- 5/10
Allan Robinson (jockey) Danny Williams (trainer)
Brasco
9.50 4.80 10.33% 3.30 1/13
Brett Poulus Tim Martin
Danasierra
4.20 2.80 11.90% --- 3/11
Tye Angland Bart Cummings
Moonee Valley
Saturday, 26th.May, 2007

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm SuperTab
Tote
Finish
La Italia
6.00 4.00 8.33% --- 14/14
Sebastian Murphy (jockey) Lee Freedman (trainer)
 

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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