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25/1/2002 edition

Betting Tips

Mistegic - no luck

First up in the Group 2 WFA Challenge Stakes at Warwick Farm over 1000 metres this three year old gelding looked too good. He had too much speed and class. He was well supported into odds on $1.80 favourite.

From barrier eight in the 10 horse field, Brian York got him out fast and tried to cross the field and lead. However, he was three wide outside Ateates, ridden by Jim Cassidy and Calming, ridden by Corey Brown. They kept pushing up inside him. The result was Mistegic had a torrid ride out three wide the entire race.

The gelding took the lead in the straight but was a sitting shot for Damien Oliver on Bomber Bill who sat just off the leaders. It was a huge effort by Mistegic, who only went down by a long neck in track record time of 55.54, taking 0.14 off Notoire's record.


Chattanooga - still chugging along

Heavily supported from $3.20 into $2.60 in the 1400 metres Listed Barton Stakes at Sandown this five year old gelding was shocking value. He never got into the race and finished a well beaten sixth in the eight horse field.

Chattanooga was up in weight to 61kg. and clearly a very false favourite.


Palladium Star - consistent backmarker

This smart, six year old gelding seems to be taking a hammering in the racing media recently for being sent out favourite, regularly running on but not winning. "It runs just well enough to get you in at its next start. Then you do your money."

Seems the facts are again being ignored.

Since November 2000 he has been a beaten favourite only twice. Beaten by a half head starting at $9.00 in the Group 3 Parramatta Leagues Club Stakes in April last year would hardly rate as a poor run. He has seven wins and six seconds from 28 starts. That's not a bad strike rate - finishing in the first two nearly 50% of starts.

His unlucky fourth at Rosehill on January 5 and unlucky fourth again at Warwick Farm last Saturday are worth noting. Could there be a win at lucrative odds just around the corner?

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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the minimum prices you should have received.
Make sure you do!

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Bomber Bill 4.10 5.50 45% $140
Grampians 4.60 6.00 39% $140
Karla Keys 3.90 5.00 38% $110
Kaaptive Empress 2.00 2.60 60% $60


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Westace 19.20 36.30 $1710
Betrille 39.30 49.30 $1000
Kaaptonite 16.10 20.70 $460
Ouch 12.50 15.90 $340


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