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25/6/2004 edition

Betting Tips and Strategies

Betting favourites - false favourites and short odds

Punters betting favourites had an absolute nightmare at Rosehill last Saturday. Favourite after favourite not only failed to win, but finished down the track. Just one favourite, Shannon Bank, $3.80, won. That was not until race seven.

Here is how the seven losing favourites went, with some brief comments::

Mi Chiamo
$3.20, finished 4/8

What was this 2YO filly doing as favourite? She had raced seven times for just one third. That was on a Slow track. Rosehill had a Good track.

La Vie En Rose
$2.20, finished 6/9

This 2YO filly was racing against the boys. Her winning form was from Kembla Grange. There was light form from everywhere in this race, an absolute trap betting race. The John Hawkes' trained 2YO gelding Peel won. It's only result was a flop at Moonee Valley three weeks earlier on a rain affected Slow track.

Sabre Knight
$2.80, finished 7/9

The only first up runner in the race. It's always risky taking short odds about those first up "good things."

Lambeth Walk
$2.80, finished 5/10

A 3YO race full of form from the provincials. Lambeth Walk's previous start was when the colt ran second at Binnaway four weeks earlier. $2.80 on Saturday? Now that's what we call big unders.

Dane Fever
$2.80, finished 5/7

This 3YO John Hawkes' trained gelding had no luck two weeks earlier at Rosehill and probably should have won. But the John Hawkes' trained 3YO filly, Santissima, was allowed to get under the guard of most punters in the race. She won a Mares Open at the track two weeks. Her record at Rosehill was three wins from six starts. On Saturday she won at the unbelievable starting price odds of $12.00.

Rostrum
$3.20, finished 9/9

This looked like an open 3YO race. Rostrum usually gets well back in the field. For most horses this reduces their winning straike rate which means you don't take short odds. This time Rostrum got well back and that is where he stayed. He now has two wins and two placings from nine starts.

Lady Amante
$3.20, finished 2/11

This 5YO mare had won six of her 12 starts. Two weeks earlier she ran a good fourth in Listed company. She should have been the favourite on Saturday, and ran up to that, missing out by half a length. Her starting price of $3.20 was probably a touch on the short side.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting tips and strategies - Sandown Hillside Heavy track
Betting tips and strategies - false favourites and short odds
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Sandown Hillside betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 18/6/2004
Punt to Win index


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