Punt to Win
Irrelevant Form Lines
How often have you heard comments like the following:
"Well folks, we've just been given a great leg in for Lucky Star in the next race. Did you see the way Phantom Spy led all the way in the last race at Caulfield and won easily ... It franks the winning performance of Lucky Star who came home with a withering run to beat Phantom Spy comfortably at Sandown two weeks ago. Lucky Star would have toyed with this field. This makes Lucky Star a moral to win the next race."
Then you look into the form a little deeper, being of course sceptical about what a racing media tipster is telling you.
Sandown and Caulfield are very different tracks. Some horses perform at Sandown and flop at Caulfield and vice versa. You also note that the Caulfield track was rated Good, while the Sandown track was Slow. That also influences the performances of different horses.
So the racing media tipster was using the form from the horses racing at Sandown on a Slow track on a different track and in different conditions to prove that Lucky Star was a far superior animal to Phantom Spy and would have "toyed" with the field that Phantom Spy had just defeated. Not only that, but that Lucky Star is "a moral to win the next race."
You need to assess the win of a horse on its merits. Look at factors like luck in running, weight carried, sectional times etc. You should not be hanging out to see how Lucky Star performed in order to decide whether or not you back Phantom Spy. Had Phantom Spy finished last instead of first, it should not have changed your assessment of Lucky Star.
To win at racing you must use different angles/methods from the majority. Follow the formline myth and you will come up with the same results as most tipsters and just about every other punter.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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