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26/7/2002 edition

Beat the Favourite

Continued from previous page
Here are some comments about beaten favourites from last Saturday at Rosehill. If you can succesfully identify poor value favourites, then it is possible to make money backing against them. You may even consider a field versus favourite bet.

Words Of Magic (4YO and UP Transition. Handicap. 1100 metres.)
SP $5.00. 11 runners.
The class horse of the race, with six wins and four placings from 10 starts. It was always going to be a big ask first up with 60kg. and barrier 10, even with the services of Corey Brown. After working to the lead, the barrier and weight double whammy told and the 4YO gelding was grabbed on the line. Give Words Of Magic barrier one or two and he would have won.

Thorns (Open. Handicap. 1500 metres.)
SP $4.40. 10 runners.
The 4YO John Hawkes trained gelding was very well placed. He had an excellent record at the track - two wins and a second from five starts, and at the distance - three wins and two seconds from six starts. He was fit after two runs in, had barrier two and Darren Beadman to ride. But it was an open race and the $4.40 was unders. We liked Thorns ourselves, but wanted around $7.00. So no bet.

Danzabeel (3YO S/C 1 win-ly. Handicap. 1400 metres.)
SP $2.80. 12 runners.
If ever there was a false favourite, this was it. The Zabeel gelding comfortably won his first race start in a Kembla Grange maiden over 1400 metres. Second up four weeks later, he faced a significant rise in class. Four weeks between consecutive 1400 metres runs is not ideal either. The Jim Cassidy jockey and Gai Waterhouse trainer combination lured punters into taking very short odds.

Approaching the first turn, Danzabeel was crowded, became unbalanced and struck the running rail. Jim Cassidy told the stewards after that Danzabeel got its head up, raced ungenerously and was never comfortable. Danzabeel never got into the race and finished a well beaten tenth.

The stewards found nothing wrong with Danzabeel after the race. Bad luck in running must be factored into the price you are prepared to accept. Maybe Danzabeel is one of those horses who gives up when inconvenienced in a race. There are also plenty of horses who, when inconvenienced, shrug their shoulders and fight on.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Hype horses - no value odds
Make money - beat poor betting odds favourites
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 19/7/2002
Punt to Win index

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