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19/7/2002 edition

Form Analysis

Identifying false favourites

Expelled was sent out a short priced $2.80 favourite in a Fillies and Mares Class 6 over 1200 metres at Eagle Farm. Expelled was a very poor bet at the odds and clearly a false favourite. Consider these points:

1. Expelled is a backmarker. As a general rule, taking $2.80 about backmarkers is asking for trouble. In a field of 11 it looked very skinny odds.

2. Expelled also had barrier 10, with the possibility of not only being back in the field, but trapped wide.

3. Following two runs in at 1200 metres and 1350 metres, Expelled was dropping back to 1200 metres. Backing a horse at short odds dropping back in distance like that is generally asking for trouble.

4. Expelled had won dropping back in distance before. On November 10 last year she won over 1350 metres and then won over 1200 metres at her next start, on December 8. That is a break of four weeks, a genuine freshen up.

5. On June 29 this year Expelled finished second over 1350 metres, hitting the line hard after settling well back in the field. The drop back in distance last Saturday, July 13, was only two weeks after that run. That is difficult enough for an on pace/leader to manage. For a backmarker - just about forget it.

As the race panned out, Expelled settled well back last in the field, and was about 10 lengths off the pace at the home turn. The filly made up some ground in the straight, but still finished a well beaten eighth.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Form analysis - avoid betting this false favourite
Early Cox Plate betting
Trainer Watch - this stable is going places
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick plunge horses
Money talks - Moonee Valley, Eagle Farm plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 12/7/2002
Punt to Win index


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It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

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Short priced tote favourites
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Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Bulletproof Billy
5.10 7.00 46% $190
Dashiki
5.50 7.00 33% $150
Inclusion
2.00 3.00 100% $100
Eastwest Success
2.30 3.10 62% $80


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