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19/7/2002 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

By the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 69kg. (70 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more fared last Saturday. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Randwick 13/7/2002
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Bello Signor
59kg.
4
2000
$5.00
4/6
Honey Ryder
59kg.
4
1200
$4.20
3/8
Another six horses at Moonee Valley, Randwick, Morphettville and Eagle Farm all had apprentice claims which reduced their weight to below 59kg.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Form analysis - avoid betting this false favourite
Early Cox Plate betting
Trainer Watch - this stable is going places
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick plunge horses
Money talks - Moonee Valley, Eagle Farm plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 12/7/2002
Punt to Win index


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