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26/9/2003 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Continued from previous page

I'm a big fan of horse/jockey combinations, I know some people think this is overrated but I have had some great results looking at win/place percentages. with certain horses and jockeys.

Never ever change your tips when you go to the track, unless there is a major reason to do so.

And never let the price of a horse change your thinking, if you think it is a good chance and it's at long odds, then all the better for you.

And last but not least, class is the key. Research into what you consider are false pre-race favourites by looking at the class of the horses and you'll find good value.
(Betting tips from Shoeln.)


No set rules.

I like looking at finishing lengths. Often horses get under the guard of punters when they run a close up seventh or tenth. A good example was Archave yesterday. Previous start was 1.3 lengths behind Fiery Venture and Grand Armee and he beat home Defier and Private Steer.
(Betting tips from umrum.)


When I reviewed my betting I found that while those over 7.00 were showing a profit it all came from one winner! This worried me as you can hardly rely on jagging something at those odds. The effect these longshots have on your strike rate can not be underestimated and it flows on that it effects your confidence (because your are losing) and you will probably start to second guess yourself etc. which is big trouble in this game.

So now if I like something at a decent price I want to know why it is that price. Am I overrating it or underrating something else?

From what I have seen if I can't figure out why, the horse invariably runs up to the market price (not mine). To me this means there is some other reason which the people who matter are aware of but I have missed or am unable to obtain. eg. a fitness problem which has caused the horse to miss work which has been kept away from the public.

Whereas if you know why the market doesn't like the horse but you don't see that as a problem then by all means back your judgment.
(Betting tips from thekey.)

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse Racing betting tips
Spring Carnival horses - good runs, good betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Sandown betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 19/9/2003
Punt to Win index


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Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Grumans 15.40 36.80 $2140
Touchy Subject 22.50 35.80 $1430
Rupanyup 12.30 22.80 $1050
Proudly Aggro 29.40 38.90 $950
Silver Canon 30.90 39.90 $900
Sure Bet 15.50 23.90 $840
Starbucks 11.80 20.10 $830


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