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26/10/2001 edition

Horse Racing
Form Analysis

Wet track form is essential

The wet track at Caulfield didn't deter punters from sending out lightly raced four year old mare Parfore as the $3.80 favourite in the second race of the day, an 1100 metres Fillies and Mares Open.

After racing handily on the pace she was gone by the home turn and finished last, beaten by 15 lengths.

Punters followed up in the next race, a 1400 metres 3YO Fillies Open, by sending out Grand Juror as the $3.80 favourite. She was rising in weight to 56.5kg. and also had no wet track form.

She led, but when challenged in the straight found little and was beaten by a few lengths.

It is important to minimise risks as much as possible. There are two very simple rules when backing horses on wet tracks with no previous wet track form to reduce the risks.
1. Look for value. If on a Good track you would have been happy with around $4.00 then you need at least $6.00 or $7.00 on the wet.
2. Reduce your bet size.

We usually follow those rules ourselves at Pro-Punter which is why we don't get wiped out backing horses on wet tracks with no wet track form. For example in the fourth at Caulfield, a 3YO Listed race over 1400 metres, we liked two horses. Neither horse had any wet track form. Compared to our maximum bets of 120 units:
a) We suggested 35 units on Grand Falls at minimum odds of $8.00 and
25 units on Gordo, also at minimum odds of $8.00.

We were never in the ball park with Grand Falls. In the 13 horse field he was sent out the $4.60 favourite and finished eighth. But $8.00 was available on Gordo and he won the race very nicely for us.


Maiden gallopers - beware short odds

Once horses have had plenty of starts and have not yet managed a win you really have to start asking some serious questions about them. It is certainly not adviseable to take short odds about them.

In the fifth at Randwick, a six horse 3YO Fillies restricted race, Breezer was backed in from $3.00 to $2.80 favourite ($2.40 on the tote at the jump). She had raced 10 times for three seconds and five thirds. She had also never raced on the Randwick Inner track.

Breezer led the field comfortably, but weakened out of it over the last 200 and finished fifth. The winner, More Than A Woman, who paid $7.60, was trained by John Hawkes. Not bad odds in the small field and other winner from the Hawkes stable who is not a short priced favourite. (Flavour also won the last at Caulfield and paid $12.00).

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Future winners at big odds
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Randwick Inner Racetrack
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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Gordo 6.50 8.00 27% $150
Count Scenario 3.60 5.00 54% $140
Stylish Cossack 4.20 5.50 41% $130
Windigo 4.30 5.50 36% $120
Pernod 4.10 5.00 29% $90
Burkina Miss 2.70 3.50 47% $80
Heptonstall 1.70 2.10 57% $40
Jar Jar Binks 1.80 2.10 38% $30

Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Sea Front 15.90 28.00 $1210
Philidor 11.00 16.00 $500
Brief Embrace 6.40 10.80 $440
Undenied 15.10 19.00 $390
Restless 10.50 13.30 $280
Freemason 12.10 14.40 $230
Joie 14.40 16.40 $200


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