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26/11/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, November 20.

Rosehill: Track Dead
R1 $55,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Sc1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1900 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Not Fussy
Result: first
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Con Karakatsanis
Trainer: Brian Heffernan

R3 $55,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Steflara
Result: first
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.25
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John O'Shea

Sandown Hillside: Track Good
R1 $50,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: three
Favourite: Foreplay
Result: first
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton

R3 $50,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Sweetness 'N' Light
Result: first
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Colin Little

Morphettville: Track Good
R1 $20,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Barker Lad
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.50
Jockey: Shayne Cahill
Trainer: David Whitney
Winner: Fast Romance
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $11.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.50
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis and betting strategies - false favourites
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Rosehill and Sandown
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 19/11/2004
Punt to Win index


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You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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