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Punt to Win |
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27/9/2002 edition Horse Racing Handicapping Tips Apprentice jockeys We're all used to hearing and reading comments like "The horse comes in well with the claim." Well, what is an apprentice jockey's claim worth? Is it better for a horse to carry 60kg. with Damien Oliver riding or drop to 57kg. after a three kilos claim? Like many aspects of racing form, there is no simple and easy answer. However there are plenty of important points to consider. Here are a few: 1. When a horse rises in weight from 50kg. to 53kg. it will have considerably less effect than a rise in weight from 57kg. to 60kg. 2. Some horses can carry weight. Others, like many small horses, will run considerably worse with even 56kg. to 57kg. 3. Most apprentices get the claim because it is needed. They are learning their trade. They may have a three kilos claim, but for practical purposes with some of these apprentices the horse could now have a five kilos or so inferior jockey. In reality the horse is worse off, not better off with the apprentice. 4. Some apprentices' claims are absolute luxuries. Zac Purton and Michael Rodd have now outridden their claims. But when they had their claims it was an absolute bonus. They were better riders than most of the senior hoops. 5. It can help if you carefully look at the rides and options taken by apprentice riders. Which apprentices always get caught wide, held up for a run and so on? Make your own judgements about which apprentice riders are very good. Then you can confidently back horses you like that are ridden by them, knowing that the claim is a bonus and not needed to compensate for their inferior riding skills. 6. If you can latch on to a quality apprentice before the media do you can get some good odds about some of the apprentice's winners. Odds that would be much shorter and maybe even poor value bets if someone like Damien Oliver had the rides. This edition of Punt to Win: Back Tote Longshots?
You Need Top Odds It
is just about impossible to get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and the poor value tote horses to make up
for the big unders on the tote. Short
priced tote favourites Specials |
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