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29/6/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Don't believe "experts"

Before the first race down the straight at Flemington one media "expert" said confidently, "I'm sure they'll all go down the outside."

It was just as good a comment as his confident tips. The eight horse field split, four on the inside and four on the outside!


Betting advice for heavy tracks

Shane Templeton in the Herald Sun, Monday, June 25 wrote:
"There are some punters who understandably shy away from horses with big weights on heavy tracks...
That's probably why bookies bet $5.50 about CHATANOOGA, who finally got into $4.20.
Had it not been for the 59kg. on the heavy ground, given the way he won at his previous start, it might have been $3.50 into $2.60.
But CHATANOOGA, who has more than a splash of class, can handle the going.
He made light work of the 59kg..."

Shane Templeton then gave his punting "Lesson":
"59kg. is not enough weight to stop a really good horse who can handle the heavy."

We beg to differ with Shane Templeton:

1. The talk about $3.50 into $2.60 is not really relevant.
2. The fact is the horse was being asked to carry 59kg, an increase of 1.5kg., in a 16 horse field, with no apprentice claims allowed, on a Flemington Heavy.
3. There was no evidence to say that Chatanooga would handle the 59kg.
4. Shane Templeton did not mention that Chattanooga is not an overly big horse. Connections had also recently used a claiming apprentice when the horse had 57.5kg.
5. In his previous 21 races Chattanooga had never raced on a track officially rated Heavy. Many horses can handle Slow tracks and not handle Heavy tracks.


58kg. stopped Windigo at Flemington racetrack

This smart galloper had eight wins and six seconds from only 28 starts going into last Saturday's race at Flemington. He also handles Heavy tracks. He also had three wins and three placings from only six starts at Flemington as well as three wins and two placings from six starts at the 1100 metres distance of the race. But he rose in weight from 56kg. to 58kg.

There was good support for Windigo on track and he firmed from $4.80 to $4.20 favourite. He hit the finishing line hard but missed out by a bob of the head in the closest of finishes. Clearly the 58kg. stopped him from winning. Give him back 56kg. and he would have won easily.

More Action has an amazing record on rain affected tracks. On Slow tracks he has three wins and seven places from only 11 starts. On Heavy tracks, four wins from four starts before Saturday.

He was sent out the $4.20 favourite at Flemington. However he was handicapped with 57.5kg., a 2.5kg. rise on his previous start. Despite working hard early, he loomed up as the winner in the straight. However he died on his run over the last 50 metres and finished second. He found 57.5kg. too much for him at Flemington.

If a horse carries a heavy weight in rain affected going and anything goes wrong in the run you are usually in big trouble if you backed the horse.

You need to form your own opinion about Shane Templeton's punting "Lesson." But it pays to be very wary of horses rising, or carrying high weights on Heavy tracks unless you obtain what you consider to be very generous odds.


Flemington racetrack - no good for bettors

With the rail out nine metres last Saturday you found jockeys trying to find fast lanes down the centre of the track in the home straight.

The inside was avoided and in the straight races jockeys also avoided the outside rail. No wonder Flemington is a treacherous track for punters in the wet.

What happened at the Caulfield meeting the following day, Sunday? The rail was out 15 metres. On a Good rated track there is usually unfair racing with the rail out 15 metres. On Sunday the track was Heavy.

Rounding the home turn all jockeys tried to get in the fast lane near the outside rails. When you have races like that combined with very ordinary horses racing you know the races are raffles. Often form from the meeting should be ignored.

We did not rate one race at Flemington or Caulfield racetracks.

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Top Odds Are Important

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners last week?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.

Horse
Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Edging Out 2.90 5.00 111% $210
Rare Gold 3.20 4.60 64% $140
Expect A Star 3.40 4.80 58% $140
Chattanooga 4.40 5.50 32% $110
Splendid Retreat 4.50 5.50 29% $100
Midnight Avenue 2.20 2.80 50% $60
Maythehorsebewithu 2.50 3.00 33% $50
Scenic Peak 1.60 2.00 67% $40
London Eye 1.80 2.10 38% $30

Back Tote Longshots?

Horse
Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Bargain 19.70 26.20 $650
As You Do 35.20 40.10 $490
Maguire 31.50 36.20 $470
Puzzle Book 38.70 43.40 $470
King Of Atlantis 16.90 21.40 $450
Denise 21.70 26.10 $440
Constructor 13.70 17.50 $380
Citichy 9.50 10.50 $100


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