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29/10/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting. We have the results below from Cox Plate Day and Caulfield Cup Day.

Here are the results from Cox Plate Day, Saturday, October 23.

Rosehill: Track Dead
R2 $50,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Aemilee
Result: third
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
Jockey: Ronnie Stewart
Trainer: Bob Thomsen
Winner: Gator
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Todd Pannell
Trainer: John Hawkes

R3 $50,000 3YO and upward Fillies & Mares. Sc1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: six
Winner: Not Fussy
Result: first
Starting price: $3.10 equal favourite
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Mathew Cahill
Trainer: Brian Heffernan
Equal Favourite: Geeta
Result: second
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.30
Jockey: Grant Buckley
Trainer: Bart Cummings

Moonee Valley: Track Good
R3 $150,000 3YO Fillies. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Emlozza
Result: sixth
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.40
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Tony Noonan
Winner: Truly Wicked
Starting price: $13.00
Top fluctuation: $13.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $13.20
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Brian Mayfield-Smith

R4 $150,000 Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Regimental Gal
Result: second
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.80
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Shaun Dwyer
Winner: Bomber Bill
Starting price: $8.50
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.30
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

Morphettville: Track Good
R2 $22,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Strikes Back
Result: first
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Ricky Moore

R3 $20,000 3YO. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Honalee
Result: first
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

Here are the results from Caulfield Cup Day, Saturday, October 16.

Randwick Inner Track: Track Good
R2 $45,000 4YO and upward. Sc2. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Viking Tor
Result: first
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: John O'Shea

R3 $45,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Commandments
Result: first
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: William Pearson
Trainer: Kevin Moses

This edition of Punt to Win:
Melbourne Cup facts and betting tips
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 15/10/2004
Punt to Win index


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It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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