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29/10/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 22nd. October.

Moonee Valley Cox Plate Day: Track Slow

R4 $175,000 3YO. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Manton
Result: second
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Duelled
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson

R5 $200,000 Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Segments
Result: seventh
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
Jockey: Scott Seamer
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Virage De Fortune
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Bruce McLachlan


Rosehill: Track Dead

R1 $60,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Star Folly
Result: third
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Kathy O'Hara
Trainer: Gwenda Markwell
Winner: Imana
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Kanichiro Fujii
Trainer: Guy Walter

R2 $60,000 2YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Up'N'Doing
Result: first

Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Lenny Beasley
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson

R3 $60,000 3YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Fox Lake
Result: second
Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.60
Jockey: Kanichiro Fujii
Trainer: Danny Williams
Winner: Resistor
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.70
Jockey: Robbie Brewer
Trainer: Bob Thomsen


Morphettville: Track Dead

R1 $24,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Aztec Smytzer
Result: third
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Byron Cozamanis
Winner: Bad Boys
Starting price: $13.00
Top fluctuation: $21.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $11.00
Jockey: Kate Walters
Trainer: John Hickmott

This edition of Punt to Win:
Melbourne Cup betting facts and tips
Get those betting odds
The Melbourne Cup quick pick horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track: Moonee Valley Cox Plate Day and Rosehill
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 22/10/2005
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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