30/3/2001 edition
More Punt to Win Tips

We keep warning you..

No matter what is said by others we can only tell you how we see it.
Bet in any 1000 metres race at your own risk. If you take short odds in those races you will have some nasty long term results.

I know a punter who used to back "good things". If he backed a winner at $4.00 he was laughing about the "huge odds" he obtained. You see, he assessed all these horses as odds on chances. While he had a fair degree of success in races over 1200 metres to 1600 metres he regularly lost in 1000 metres races. It got to the point where he refused to bet in them. Actually, not that bad an idea.

Have a look at what happened on Saturday.
At Moonee Valley there were two 1000 metres races.

The first was won by Lungarno backed into $2.80 on track.

The other was won by The Mooksta. Only six days earlier he was well beaten at Bendigo. He had one placing from nine starts on rain affected going. Yet at Moonee Valley on the Slow track he led all the way. He paid up to $48.60.

Kapuna, plunged from $6.00 to $4.00 never looked like winning and finished second. Hand Pass $4.50 second favourite never got into the race.

At Doomben the 1020 metres race was won by Catainer who paid up to $22.30. He has been consistently starting at double figure odds and had been well beaten at his previous three starts. However at Doomben he led all the way and never really looked like losing.

By contrast, the favourite Bagpipes $3.25, finished third and never looked like winning. By the way, Robbite was being pushed in the race by some in the media because of his good record at the track. Yet Robbite had been beaten 26 lengths at his previous start 33 days earlier.

At Cheltenham the three 1000 metres races were non betting affairs.

How could you seriously back anything in the 2YO Open with four first starters in the nine horse field? But punters did. Luskin's Proud was supported from $3.50 to $3.00 favourite. The gelding was beaten by eight lengths. Second favourite Li Lo Lill won, starting at $3.20, - by over six lengths.

The 3YO Class 6 wiped punters out. Comic Jewel won first up and paid $31.90 on the Queensland tote. Racers Belle $3.00 finished second after getting back in the field while Shaye Spice $2.50 was unplaced in the race. So much for a two horse race.

In the other race at Cheltenham we liked Corps Commander, but at $4.00. We were never in the ball park. He started at $1.60 and won by a little over a length. To punters who backed him we say,"Good luck. You'll also need it taking those odds." Second favourite in the race, Brinkley Lass was backed in from $7.00 to $6.00. She was a well beaten eighth.

The results of 1000 metres races are consistently unpredictable.
Punters who take short odds regularly get blown away by a horse with no form.
In 1000 metres races, far more than any other distance, horses with absolutely no form to recommend them, regularly win.

Desert Sky

On paper he looked a good thing in the 1500 metres 3YO Group 2 Phar Lap Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday. He was coming off two wins at Group 1 Weight for Age in Melbourne over 1400 metres. He was dropping so far down in class it wasn't funny and only rising one kilo in weight.

Desert Sky finished a well beaten sixth. Even in the betting ring there was not overly strong support. He started as $4.00 favourite.

Many horses who have performed well in Melbourne do not handle the Sydney way of going which is clockwise, the reverse of Melbourne. Desert Sky was also going up in distance to 1500 metres after a four weeks' break. Not ideal.

Watch out for the New Zealanders

Well performed horses from New Zealand should always be a big watch if good odds are available. Mabuz started at $6.00 at Rosehill and unleashed a powerful finish to win.
Don't leave them out of your doubles and trifectas.

Doomben disaster

With the rail out five metres last Saturday, Doomben did not appear a particularly attractive meeting. It is very much a specialists' track and similar in many ways to Moonee Valley. Once the rail moves out at Moonee Valley you are also looking at a tough meeting.

Punters were taken to the cleaners in a big way at Doomben. It was no surprise to see six of the eight races won by horses at double figure odds.

Weight stops a train

One of the big problems punting horses dropping heavily in class is that they usually rise substantially in weight.

Shaye Spice ran a strong race behind Lezayre at Sandown on March 4 in a Fillies and Mares Open Handicap over 1000 metres. Shaye Spice then went to Cheltenham on March 24 and started in a much weaker event, a 3YO Class 6. On paper she looked a good thing. Using standard weight and class ratings she was a moral.

Only one problem. Shaye Spice rose in weight from 52kg. to 58kg. She started at $2.50 ( she was showing $1.90 on the New South Wales tote at the jump). Shaye Spice led, but weakened and finished fifth.

When horses rise substantially in weight in 1000 metres races it is not correct that "Weight doesn't matter in 1000 metres races." It does.

Next: Punt to Win 23/3/2001

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