30/11/2001 edition

Northerly Loses
Handicaps - the Great Leveller

Northerly - an even money winning chance?

It was unbelievable. How could Northerly have been backed in on track from $2.50 (a 40% winning chance) to only $2.20 (a 45% winning chance). He was also only $2.00 on totes for the 1600 metres Group 1 Railway Stakes at Ascot in Western Australia last Saturday? It's taking prices like that which guarantees punters must lose long term. Consider these points:

1. Northerly was handicapped with 61.5kg.

2. The highest weight carried to victory in the last 30 years of the Railway Stakes was only 55.5kg. by Better Loosen Up who also won a Japan Cup.

3. Northerly started off the track, from barrier 15 in the 16 horse field.

4. Northerly's whole preparation was aimed at winning the Weight For Age Cox Plate, which he did. He had a hard campaign of top class racing for five wins and a second. He was now dropping back in distance from the 2040 metres of the Cox Plate to 1600 metres after only a break of four weeks.

5. Northerly defeated Old Comrade in the Railway Stakes last year by nearly three lengths. However, then Northerly carried only 51kg., the same weight as Old Comrade.

6. This year Old Comrade, a four year old gelding, who is no slouch (three wins and six places from 12 starts and prizemoney of $369,000) only had to carry 53.5kg. That meant he was meeting Northerly eight kilos better at the weights for only a three lengths defeat.

7. Old Comrade was also not at the end of a hard preparation or in need of a freshen up like Northerly. Old Comrade was primed and ready for the Railway Stakes after putting in two strong runs this preparation.

Northerly worked hard out wide in the run from barrier 15 lugging 61.5kg., missed a place and finished eleventh. Leading hoop Damien Oliver, who had the ride, is not a miracle worker. Old Comrade won the race at good odds of $8.00. Talk about markets getting it completely wrong. Northerly should not have even been favourite!

It's official - punters are mugs

When writing in "Monday Sport", Herald Sun, November 26, 2001, about how the new Racing Victoria Ltd. Board, Country Racing and the Metropolitan Clubs are all at loggerheads over getting what "they consider their fair share of Tabcorp's estimated $170 million revenue" columnist Brian Meldrum added:

"The irony is the people who generate the money, the punters, couldn't give a tinker's toss who runs racing. Day in, day out they'll turn up at the TAB or PubTab and bet on whatever is served up.
Stick a form guide on the TAB wall, put the action on Sky Channel, and I have no doubt an egg-and-spoon race at a primary school fete would attract revenue...
If country racing was conducted on eight tracks across the state, the punters wouldn't know the difference.."

Well, there you have it. What do you think?

Next pages
How to back winners at the Randwick Inner track
First starters - money does not talk
Future winners at big odds
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