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Punt to Win |
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31/5/2002 edition Trainer Tips After De Valmont won a restricted race at Rosehill last Saturday, John Tapp said from the Sky Racing studio: "A late move for that horse today, De Valmont. Prepared by an outstanding trainer Tony Wildman at Warwick Farm. Tony places them well, gets them fit and when he advises his owners that a horse can win he is rarely wrong." 1. How does John Tapp know that? Have the trainer or the owners told him? 2. In the bookmaker betting ring De Valmont only firmed slightly from $4.00 to $3.50. How does John Tapp know that was caused by betting from connections? 3. What happens if four other trainers in the same race as a Tony Wildman trained horse that "can win" also advise their owners that their horses "can win"? It is a fallacy to believe that all a trainer has to do is get a horse fit, correctly place it, and then it will win the race. There are often plenty of other trainers with horses in the same race doing exactly the same thing. It is also a fallacy to believe that when a horse firms in the betting ring it is because of insider money from connections. There are plenty of substantial punters (many of them substantial losers) out there. This edition of Punt to Win: Back Tote Longshots?
You Need Top Odds It
is just about impossible to get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and the poor value tote horses to make up for
the big unders on the tote. Short
priced tote favourites Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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