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31/5/2002 edition

Trainer Tips
Insider Betting

After De Valmont won a restricted race at Rosehill last Saturday, John Tapp said from the Sky Racing studio:

"A late move for that horse today, De Valmont. Prepared by an outstanding trainer Tony Wildman at Warwick Farm. Tony places them well, gets them fit and when he advises his owners that a horse can win he is rarely wrong."

1. How does John Tapp know that? Have the trainer or the owners told him?

2. In the bookmaker betting ring De Valmont only firmed slightly from $4.00 to $3.50. How does John Tapp know that was caused by betting from connections?

3. What happens if four other trainers in the same race as a Tony Wildman trained horse that "can win" also advise their owners that their horses "can win"?

It is a fallacy to believe that all a trainer has to do is get a horse fit, correctly place it, and then it will win the race. There are often plenty of other trainers with horses in the same race doing exactly the same thing.

It is also a fallacy to believe that when a horse firms in the betting ring it is because of insider money from connections. There are plenty of substantial punters (many of them substantial losers) out there.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Trainer tips - insider betting
Do racecallers understand class?
Bookmaker Robbie Waterhouse Supporters Club
Horseracing handicapping betting tips
Flemington racetrack bias - your letters
Money talks - Randwick plunge horses
Money talks - Moonee Valley plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 24/5/2002
Punt to Win index

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