31/5/2002 edition

Racecallers:
Are they Form Experts?

When Bo Best won the fourth race of the day at Victoria Park, a 3YO Open over 1450 metres, last Saturday, racecaller Hilton Donaldson said:

"That winner Bo Best is racing pretty well. She ran fourth in a 3YO handicap to Multi Win here but before that she was in a Black-Type race at Morphettville, the Port Adelaide Guineas beaten less than 10 by Our Kazz, so it's a fair drop for him today."

The "She" is not a typo.

Bo Best was beaten 9.6 lengths by Our Kazz on April 20. In our opinion that run should not be emphasised as if it was a significant formline.

On any standard weight ratings measure, if Bo Best performed to the same ratings level as in the Port Adelaide Guineas, then he would have been comfortably beaten last Saturday. In fact his fourth behind Multi Win next start on May 4, beaten 2.5 lengths, was quite a few kilos better performance than his run in the Port Adelaide Guineas, but also had to be significantly improved upon to win last Saturday.

Just like a bus driver does not automatically become a quality mechanic, so a racecaller does not automatically become a form expert.

Feedback: "Media experts and racecallers"

Here's an e mail:
From: Lewis, Jason Paul
To: neil@propun.com.au
Sent: Tuesday, May 28, 2002 3:01 PM
Subject: Value

"Neil,
I have only recently found your web page and find it very informative. I am a small weekend punter and strongly follow the methods of the late Don Scott.

Your articles on media experts are particularly interesting and insightful.

Particularly interesting to me is your opinion of the Flemington race track. It goes a long way to explaining why I have such poor record punting on this track. The media certainly does not give you this impression.

Your articles on media experts are particularly interesting and insightful. I thought I would share one that I hear every month or so from our race callers when giving tips. The statement usually goes something like this.

"This is an open race but so and so horse has been racing well and is likely to be at good odds." How do they know what good odds are? If they did they would be pro punters not race callers.

Worse than that some of them tell us that they are looking for value then go on to tip the horse on an "each way" basis (this is an Ian Craig and Wayne Wilson special). As you no doubt know this is absolute garbage. The place tote (which most of their audience will use) is ridiculously poor value and usually under the odds.

I could go on further but I am sure you get the point. It would be interesting to assess how many of these media experts "good value each way bets" actually win let alone run a place. As referred to in one of your previous stories they should just stick to calling races."

This edition of Punt to Win:
Trainer tips - insider betting
Do racecallers understand class?
Bookmaker Robbie Waterhouse Supporters Club
Horseracing handicapping betting tips
Flemington racetrack bias - your letters
Money talks - Randwick plunge horses
Money talks - Moonee Valley plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 24/5/2002
Punt to Win index

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