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24/5/2002 edition

Horse Racing Track Bias

Last Saturday, May 18, the moveable rail was placed in the True position at Rosehill. It was also brought to our attention that another media horse racing tipster was providing an incorrect analysis of these rail movements..

Apparently this tipster claimed that as the rail was moved back to the True position at Rosehill horses racing on the rails and on the pace would be disadvantaged, so he decided to look for swoopers with all his tips.

At the previous Rosehill on May 4 the rail was also in the True position. The rail was out six metres on April 27. So he got that one wrong. But that was not all.

Surely if the rail is moved from say three metres out to the True position then there is three metres of fresh ground for horses to race in? Under normal circumstances, if any part of the track is to provide better ground, it will be that three metres. That will then work against swoopers.

As for the predicted track bias at Rosehill - swoopers could make up good ground in the home straight and there was also nothing wrong with being on the rails.


1. As a general rule it does not pay to make your selections based upon assumed track bias. Even if you correctly predict the bias, you will often find a horse you thought had no chance, because it would settle near the rear of the field on a leaders' track, races much closer to the pace and wins.

2. It is too easy to jump to incorrect conclusions about track bias on the basis of one or two races.

3. Most track bias is against backmarkers. Even if the track is a swoopers' track, the leaders, if well ridden can go out wide in the straight and get the best ground.

4. If you are concerned about track bias, only back horses at generous odds with good jockeys who know what they are doing. Or leave that meeting alone.

5. We regularly leave Flemington meetings alone because of the unpredictable nature of the track.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horseracing track bias
Favourites - bet for value
Bookmaker betting odds update
Value betting - bet smart
Ten betting tips to back winners
Money talks - Saturday's plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/5/2002
Punt to Win index

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