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17/5/2002 edition

Bookmaker Betting Odds:
Value is Here

Compared to tote odds for horses well in the betting, there was some massive value with the bookmakers last Saturday at Flemington and Randwick. The difference between getting the top bookmaker odds compared to the odds some tote punters got can well be the difference between breaking approximately square long term (or even making a profit) or being just about certain to lose money over the long term.

Have a look at the table right at the bottom of this page.

The Victorian Government is helping its bookmakers become more competitive. Maybe this is already starting to show with some of the excellent odds on offer for punters. For example at Flemington last Saturday:

1. The starting price market in the 2500 metres Open Handicap was 115.57% and at top official betting ring fluctuation a low and very fair 106.4%.

2. The starting price market in the 1400 metres Welter Handicap was 114.78% and at top official betting ring fluctuation a low and very fair 104.89%.

If the Victorian bookmakers continue to offer markets like that their turnover will increase substantially. If they are sensible they should be able to make a good profit while smart punters should also have a realistic chance of making a profit. Not like the Adelaide markets which are often 130% to 140% where you're banging your head against a brick wall.

As for the Adelaide bookmakers, they had starting price markets in a:

1. 1600 metres $150,000 Group 2 set weights and penalties Fillies and Mares race of 128.16%.

2. 1200 metres $150,000 3YO Group 2 set weights race of 129.12%.

3. However to their credit the starting price market in the $300,000 3YO Group 1 South Australian Derby was 114.32%. But it's clearly not good enough to offer reasonable betting odds in one race.

Our recommendation with regard to betting on Adelaide horse racing remains in place:

Take your betting dollars away from Adelaide bookmakers. If a non Adelaide bookmaker betting on Adelaide is prepared to offer you odds substantially better than what is available in the Adelaide betting ring then it is worthwhile betting on Adelaide racing with that bookmaker. But we wouldn't bet on that.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Bookmaker betting odds - value is here
Do small fields put the odds in your favour?
Where are Adelaide's jockeys?
How's this for a betting tip?
How to win betting Gai Waterhouse trained horses
Money talks - Randwick and Caulfield plunge horses
Money talks - Morphettville plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/5/2002
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
The A Train
4.30 7.50 97% $320
3.60 6.50 112% $290
Mr. Magoo 3.20 5.00 82% $180
Skoozi's Girl
2.60 4.00 88% $140
2.70 3.90 71% $120
3.70 4.60 33% $90
Air Of Grace
2.40 3.00 43% $60

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