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24/5/2002 edition

Favourites
Bet for Value

If you can eliminate false favourites or work out when the favourites are way under the odds, you will have a much better chance of making a dollar betting on horses than most punters. Have a look at these favourites from last Saturday at Rosehill.

They were all false favourites or way under their true winning odds.

Rosehill

Air Of Grace - $1.90 odds on. The 2YO filly rose from 58kg. to 60.5kg. and finished second in the field of eight.

Thunder On - The 2YO gelding started at $3.30 in the small field of six. (Much shorter on the tote.) He had top weight of 59kg. He finished second. The winner Warrior Trader started at $51.00. He paid as little as $21.60 on the Queensland tote. That also tells you there is a real problem getting decent odds backing longshots in small fields on the tote.

Sweet Chloe - This 3YO filly rose in weight from 53kg. to 56.5kg. as well as copping barrier eight in the field of 11. Starting at $4.20 she finished a well beaten second.

Provokes - The 3YO filly had a half kilo drop in weight to 55.5kg. after convincingly winning a midweek restriced handicap against the older horses. Sent out a short $2.50 favourite in the fillies and mares restricted race she finished sixth out of six. The trainer - John Hawkes.

Ruember - Heavily supported from $3.60 into $2.70, this smart four year old gelding was first up from a spell. In a wide open race he had to cope with barrier 10 of 13 over the Rosehill 1200, not a particularly easy task. Ruember finished third. He was more like a $9.00 chance and way under the odds.


This edition of Punt to Win:
Horseracing track bias
Favourites - bet for value
Bookmaker betting odds update
Value betting - bet smart
Ten betting tips to back winners
Money talks - Saturday's plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/5/2002
Punt to Win index


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You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Thong And Pushbike
4.60 6.00 39% $140
King Wells
2.80 4.00 43% $120
Juror 4.30 5.50 36% $120
We're Dancing
2.70 3.60 53% $90


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