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1/3/2014 edition

Horse Racing Betting on "In Form" Jockeys

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Horse racing commentators over the years have influenced punters to believe that they can make money by following jockeys that are now winning a much higher percentage of their races than they usually do - the "hot" or "in form" jockeys.

This example from the past is just as relevant today:

That had a perfect run, didn't it. Third on the fence. It's amazing when jockeys are in form, as John Powell is, how things just pan out in a race. Here he gets on Lady Isabella. Next thing Poacher's Luck and Cyrillic are just making a mess of each other in front.

John Powell lobs Lady Isabella third the fence, the box seat. Nothing falls back on its lap. He gets around the heels of the leaders at the right time. He's able to hold up, then go when he wants to go. That's when jockeys are in form. When they're in form everything goes to plan."

Now let's show you why this win had nothing to do with John Powell being "in form".

But before we start, let's add that it's just superstitious nonsense to believe that when a jockey is in form "everything goes to plan."

If John Powell was not "in form" would Poacher's Luck and Cyrillic have been ridden any differently? Of course not. All John Powell had to do was ride his mount like the competent jockey he is.

You could hardly say that Scott Galloway, the jockey of Cyrillic was not "in form." Things obviously didn't "go to plan" for him, with a speed battle up front.

3. The truth of the matter is that most jockeys are in form most of the time. But only one "in form" jockey can win any given race, which obviously means that most in form jockeys do not win races most of the time. And for most "in form" jockeys, as winning is part of the plan, then things will not go to plan in most races - or things will go to plan but another horse will just be too good.

4. Because most jockeys are very competent, the racing media hyped jockeys tend to be overrated by the betting public. That results in shorter odds on the horses they ride compared with a lower profile jockey having the same ride.

5. That means you need to be very careful when backing horses ridden by someone like Damien Oliver. Because just about all punters have decided that he is "in form" the odds you get are shortened. You also know your odds will also be shortened by gamblers who rely purely on luck and will back a horse for no other reason than "Oliver has the ride."

6. You also need to be very wary about betting horses ridden by a jockey who has had a big winning run over the last couple of meetings. Rest assured you will most likely be getting under the odds with just about every one of the horses this "hot jockey" rides.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting on "in form" jockeys
The Free Late Summer Autumn Carnival First Up Winners horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: Blue Diamond Stakes Day 22/2/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day 15/2/2014 & 8/2/2014
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/2/2014

Betting favourites in small fields: 15/2/2014
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/2/2014
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 8/2/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

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2013 Melbourne Cup Day
Bookmaker Win Dividends


Get these dividends? Or these bookmaker dividends! Extra Profit $30 bet
Mujadale 15.00 18.70 $111
Bernabeu 10.90 13.00 $63
Chile Express 14.00 16.00 $60
Plucky Belle 15.50 17.30 $54
Oakleigh Girl 5.50 6.50 $30
Richie's Vibe 7.70 8.50 $24
Fiorente 6.90 7.50 $18
Salon Soldier 2.70 3.20 $15
Wistful 4.40 4.80 $12
Moderate 1.90 2.15 $7.50


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