Punt to Win

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1/4/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 25th. March.

Rosehill: Track Slow

R1 $80,000 3YO and upward. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1900 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Chess Record
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.90
Jockey: Zac Purton
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: County Tyrone
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.90
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Kris Lees

R2 $300,000 2YO Colts & Geldings. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Diego Garcia
Result: first

Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

This edition of Punt to Win:
What is a safe betting bank?
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Moonee Valley
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 25/3/2006
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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