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Punt to Win
Horse Race Caller Betting Myths
"Favourites win more often in open betting races"
What is one to make of comments like the following we've heard from racecallers filling in time before the race entertaining their listeners?
Comments like "This is another wide betting race as was the previous. Funny thing. Sometimes in wide betting races it's amazing the number of times that the favourite wins. In the previous race Twent Three Steps started at $6.50 and favourite. It won. Our favourite now is Doctor Ninety. Number six."
Quite frankly, as a piece of advice for betting on favourites this is not credible. It's a case of not letting the facts get in the way of a good story. It's the sort of thing though you expect from some race callers who seem to believe the publicity from their media bosses that somehow they are experts of the turf!
In the example above we have a statistical sample of one race.
But here is a statistic based on thousands of races that is fact when betting on favourites:
$2.00 favourites win more often than $3.00 favourites. $3.00 favourites win more often than $4.00 favourites. $4.00 favourites win more often than $5.00 favourites. And so it goes on.
In wide open betting races the favourites win much less often than in races which are not wide open betting races. That is fact. Irrespective of what any race callers might tell you. It is absolute rubbish to claim that "in wide betting races it's amazing the number of times that the favourite wins."
Finally, whether open betting races or not, if punters indiscriminately back every favourite they must lose money over the long term.
By the way, "Our favourite... Doctor Ninety" finished seventh. So what was the race caller really telling us? We're not too sure. But at the end of the day let's not forget that race callers are first and foremost racing media entertainers.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2005 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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