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1/12/2012 edition

Horse Race Caller Betting Myths

"Favourites win more often in open betting races"

What is one to make of comments like the following we've heard a number of times over the years from horse race callers while they were filling in time before the race entertaining their listeners?

Comments like "This is another wide betting race as was the previous. Funny thing. Sometimes in wide betting races it's amazing the number of times that the favourite wins. In the previous race Silent Steps started at $6.50 and favourite. It won. Our favourite now is Doctor Doctor. Lucky number seven."

Quite frankly, as a piece of advice for betting on favourites this is not credible. Basically it's a case of the race caller not wanting to let the facts get in the way of a good story. It's the sort of thing though you expect from some race callers who seem to believe the publicity from their media bosses that they are the true experts of the turf!

In the example above we have a statistical sample of one race.

But here is a statistic based on tens of thousands of races that is fact when betting on favourites:

$2.00 favourites win more often than $3.00 favourites. $3.00 favourites win more often than $4.00 favourites. $4.00 favourites win more often than $5.00 favourites. And so it goes on.

In wide open betting races the favourites win much less often than in races which are not wide open betting races. That is fact. Irrespective of what any race callers who believe they are racing's true form gurus might tell you. It is absolute rubbish to claim that "in wide betting races it's amazing the number of times that the favourite wins."

Finally, whether open betting races or not, if punters indiscriminately back every favourite they must lose money over the long term. Guaranteed.

At the end of the day let's not forget that race callers are first and foremost racing media entertainers. Race callers are not form experts.

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This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse race caller betting myths
The Free Winning Bolters Big Odds horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 24/11/2012, 17/11/2012 & 10/11/2012
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/11/2012

Betting favourites in small fields: 17/11/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/11/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 17/11/2012
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


2012 Melbourne Cup Day
Bookmaker Win Dividends

Horse

Get these dividends? Or these bookmaker dividends! Extra Profit $30 bet
Koonoomoo 22.70 31.00 $249
Kasane 26.00 28.70 $81
Green Moon 20.00 22.50 $75
Mahisara 10.20 12.40 $66
Walk With Attitude 6.50 8.50 $60
Verdant 6.60 7.50 $27
Eclair Surprise 9.50 10.30 $24
Villa Verde 3.00 3.80 $24
Genteel 3.70 4.00 $9
Unpretentious 3.90 4.20 $9


 

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