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17/11/2012 edition

How to Win Money Betting Horses at Double Figure Dollar Odds

The form is often there to wager them!

There is nothing better than backing horses at good double figure odds. It's also not about guesswork or just fluking a winner. The clues are often there.

Every week we give some clues in "Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips" showing how those big odds winners can be discovered.

In more detail, using form analysis, how do you find the clues?

1. It's a case of doing enough detective work.

2. Then weighing up the winning chances of the horse compared to the horses it is up against.

3. Then checking to see that you are getting a realistic price.

4. Hoping on race day the horse is not tipped by everyone in the media as their longshot of the day. (If plenty of other punters latch on to the same form factors as you then watch those odds quickly disappear.)

Let's have a look at an example we gave some years ago, as the same horse form detective work is just as effective today.

Prince Benbara stormed home first up to win an Open Handicap at Sandown, first up over 1300 metres. It paid tote odds of $16.20 for the win.

1. The five year old gelding had a win and two placings first up. It also won a Listed race at Caulfield over 1700 metres after a freshen up of seven weeks. So Prince Benbara clearly raced well fresh.

2. The Sandown track was rated Good. Prince Benbara only had one win and two placings from 23 starts on a Good rated track. Prince Benbara had five wins from 10 starts on a rain affected Slow track. So just looking at those horse racing form statistics most punters would have given Prince Benbara no chance.

But a closer look at Prince Benbara's recent racing form showed that it had been very competitive on Good rated tracks.

a) Five months earlier it finished fourth, only beaten two lengths in the Group 3 Sandown Stakes over 1400 metres on a Good track.

b)
Prince Benbara followed that Sandown run by another close fourth at Sandown on another Good rated track, only going down by 1.5 lengths.

c) Just before those two runs Prince Benbara finished a close third in a photo finish in the Listed Seymour Cup over 1600 metres on a Good rated track.

3. So Prince Benbara's form on Good rated tracks and at Sandown, six starts for only one placing is also not as bad as it first appears. In fact it is certainly good enough form to win just an Open Handicap.

4. The barrier, 13 in the 13 horse field, looked to be a disadvantage. But there was a good straight run to the first turn. In any case, Prince Benbara gets well back in its races, which is ideal for Sandown and nullifies any disadvantage from a wide barrier.

5. Prince Benbara had top weight of 58kg. The three kilos claim for a good apprentice also would help.

Prince Benbara would have to rate a serious winning chance.

Lucky Lil's FREE horse racing tips WON BIG on Cox Plate Day & Caulfield Cup Day!

On Cox Plate Day from 3 tips
Lucky Lil tipped $10.00 Winner Mosse Diva at Rosehill.


On Caulfield Cup Day Lucky Lil tipped $15.00 Caulfield Cup Winner Dunaden and Snitsky $6.50 at Randwick! Plus Lucky Lil's "Lay of the Day" started favourite and lost!


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This edition of Punt to Win:
How to make money betting horses at odds over $10.00
The Free Super Four horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: Melbourne Cup Day 6/11/2012
Group 1 horse racing results: VRC Derby Day 3/11/2012
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: Melbourne Cup Day 6/11/2012

Betting favourites in small fields: VRC Derby Day 3/11/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
2012 Melbourne Cup Punt to Win
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


2012 Melbourne Cup Day
Bookmaker Win Dividends

Horse

Get these dividends? Or these bookmaker dividends! Extra Profit $30 bet
Koonoomoo 22.70 31.00 $249
Kasane 26.00 28.70 $81
Green Moon 20.00 22.50 $75
Mahisara 10.20 12.40 $66
Walk With Attitude 6.50 8.50 $60
Verdant 6.60 7.50 $27
Eclair Surprise 9.50 10.30 $24
Villa Verde 3.00 3.80 $24
Genteel 3.70 4.00 $9
Unpretentious 3.90 4.20 $9

 

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