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17/11/2012 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses are handicapped with 60kg. (61kg. with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

This table below shows how horses that carried 60kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a bookmaker starting price of $10.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We have eliminated any races where more than three horses carried at least 60kg. with a starting price of $10.00 or shorter. We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Flemington - 6/11/2012
Melbourne Cup Day
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Lightinthenite
60kg.
5
1800
$7.50
6/12
Stout Hearted
60kg.
12
1800
$7.50
11/12
Morphettville - 6/11/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Bowerbird
60kg.
10
1200
$5.50
3/13
Morphettville - 3/11/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Conservatorium
62kg.
6
1200
$8.50
2/6
Exalted Moment
60.5kg.
7
1200
$7.50
3/15
Morphettville - 20/10/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
King Rodney
61kg.
16
1100
$10.00
4/16
Caulfield - 13/10/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
More Joyous
60kg.
4
1600
$2.30fav.
4/10
Doomben - 22/9/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Say No More
61kg.
3
1350
$2.40fav.
5/9
Rosehill - 15/9/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Gangster's Choice
60kg.
4
1500
$3.30
4/8
Merensky Reef
60.5kg.
5
1900
$10.00
5/10
Moonee Valley - 15/9/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Precedence
60.5kg.
10
1600
$5.50
1/13
Morphettville - 15/9/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Lord Of The Song
70.5kg.
1
3100 hurdle
$1.75fav.
3/8
Finiguerra
60kg.
4
1600
$6.50
3/6
Morphettville - 8/9/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Sandhill Chief
60kg.
5
1400
$4.00equ.fav.
3/9
Rosehill - 1/9/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Nocturnelle
60kg.
1
1400
$2.40fav.
5/9
Pierro
60kg.
4
1200
$1.55fav.
1/6
Caulfield - 1/9/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Bloomingdale Miss
60kg.
4
1400
$4.00
1/7
Celebrity Girl
60kg.
10
1000
$5.00
5/11
Sneak A Peek
61kg.
2
1400
$6.00
8/13
Morphettville - 1/9/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Lord Of The Song
71kg.
2
3200 hurdle
$2.30fav.
1/7
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to make money betting horses at odds over $10.00
The Free Super Four horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: Melbourne Cup Day 6/11/2012
Group 1 horse racing results: VRC Derby Day 3/11/2012
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: Melbourne Cup Day 6/11/2012

Betting favourites in small fields: VRC Derby Day 3/11/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
2012 Melbourne Cup Punt to Win
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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