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2/4/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, March 26.

Randwick: Track Slow

R4 $700,000 Group 1. Weight for Age.

Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Alinghi
Result: fourth
Starting price: $1.95
Top fluctuation: $1.95
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Shamekha
Starting price: $26.00
Top fluctuation: $26.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $23.80
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse


Eagle Farm: Track Good

R2 $24,000 Class 6. Handicap.

Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Russell On
Result: third
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Stathi Katsidis
Trainer: Stephen Jones
Winner: Working Class Man
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Jeff McCarter

This edition of Punt to Win:
A.J.C Australian Derby Day betting tips
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Randwick, Australian Derby Day
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 26/3/2005
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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