Punt to Win

Pro-Punter
Horse racing forums
Swap tips and discuss betting systems and software
Win at racing

 

 

2/7/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, June 25.

Randwick: Track Slow

R1 $55,000 2YO. Open.
Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Beau Covet
Result: first

Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Bob Thomsen

R2 $55,000 3YO. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Malcolm
Result: third
Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.40
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Desetta
Starting price: $21.00
Top fluctuation: $26.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $24.80
Jockey: Mitchell Bell
Trainer: Kylie Gavenlock


Moonee Valley: Track Slow

R3 $50,000 Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Equal Favourite: Conzeal
Result: second
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
Jockey: Craig Durden
Trainer: Eric Musgrove
Equal Favourite: Archero
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
Jockey: Brett Scott
Trainer: Eric Musgrove
Winner: Badger's Retreat
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Wayne Smith
Trainer: Kellie Hill


Morphettville: Track Slow

R2 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs1mw
. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Dalziel
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: David Jolly
Winner: Absolute Heaven
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Daniel Clarken

R5 $26,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Clear View
Result: first

Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Ben Hoppo
Trainer: Byron Cozamanis

This edition of Punt to Win:
Poor betting races
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch - future winners
Longshot quick pick betting system
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for popular winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick and Moonee Valley
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 25/6/2005
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.

 

Home | Contact us | Horse racing forum | Advertise

 
  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.