Punt to Win

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4/3/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

So here are the results from Saturday, 25th. February.

Eagle Farm: Track Good

R5 $40,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Babinda Half
Result: second
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.80
Jockey: Shane Shield
Trainer: Robert Bradshaw
Winner: Algorithm
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.40
Jockey: Danny Craven
Trainer: Maryann Thexton

Cheltenham: Track Good

R2 $26,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Navy Shaker
Result: second
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.20
Jockey: Kayla Stra
Trainer: Gordon Richards
Winner: Aerated
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.40
Jockey: David Tootell
Trainer: Bill Bogarts

This edition of Punt to Win:
Punting tips from the 2006 Blue Diamond Stakes Day meeting
Betting blunder - lay of the day
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill & Caulfield
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 25/2/2006
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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