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4/4/2003 edition

Tote Poor Value Odds

After you have read this have a look at the table lower down this page showing tote odds for the first race at Moonee Valley on March 22 this year. The "Tote win odds" and "Tote place odds" are the final tote odds from SuperTab for the nine runners, but they could just as well be from any state TAB.

The win market totals 119.14%. The place market 361.93% for three places. That is equivalent to 120.64% for the win market. The bigger effect of rounding down dividends will explain why tote place markets offer even poorer value than tote win markets.

The two "Tote break even" columns are adjusted for the tote take out and show what the tote prices would be if all moneys bet were returned - in other words, a market of 100%.

It's by seeing these significant differences that you realise what you are up against. On the occasions when any of those "Tote win odds" or "Tote place odds" dividends were genuine value, then many, if not all the other win and place odds would need to be significantly higher than the prices given in the "Tote break even" columns.

That might mean for example that a punter who is getting $5.20 tote win odds really needs $7.00 to break even!

Moonee Valley
22/3/2003
Tote
win
odds
Tote
break even
Tote
place
odds
Tote
break even
16.40
19.54
2.90
3.50
17.00
20.25
2.60
3.14
5.20
6.20
1.50
1.81
1.60
1.91
1.10
1.33
28.60
34.15
5.30
6.39
42.20
50.28
7.10
8.57
14.20
16.92
2.80
3.38
11.50
13.70
3.00
3.62
26.20
31.22
3.40
4.10
119.14%
.
361.93%
.

Win betting on the tote is a very tough proposition. Even if you believe you have got genuine value there is no guarantee that some late money will not wreck that value for you.

On the tote you should only back a horse for the win late in the betting and then only if it is significantly over the minimum price you believe is fair value.

This edition of Punt to Win:
John Hawkes, Gai Waterhouse betting tips
Tote value bets - betting tips
Tote betting odds - check out this table
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Sandown betting tips from the track
Money talks - Doomben betting tips from the track
Money talks - Morphettville betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 28/3/2003
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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