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28/3/2003 edition

Favourites Betting Odds

Have a look at how the shortest priced favourites fared at Moonee Valley last Saturday:

Vocabulary $1.60
Never really got into the race - finished third of nine. But would you take only $5.00 about the winner, Super Groove? That's 82.5% about just two horses.

Lashed $2.50
Finished second of 11 in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Oaks.

Ruby Slipper $2.50
First up from a spell of seven months. The 4YO mare started from barrier seven of 11 in this 1000 metres' sprint. A three kilos' claiming apprentice, Michael Connick, was also used.

Invariably horses sent out at short odds are unders. They may well be the best runners in their races. But short priced favourites are just winners of popularity polls. The more negatives, the riskier the bet. Ruby Slipper above had at least three clear negatives:

1. First up.
2. Barrier seven of 11.
3. A little known three kilos claiming apprentice.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Favourites betting odds
Betting market percentage odds
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Canterbury betting tips from the track
Money talks - Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Money talks - Cheltenham, Doomben betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 21/3/2003
Punt to Win index


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It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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