28/3/2003 edition

Betting Market Odds

Here is what Brisbane race caller Alan Thomas said last Saturday before race three at Doomben:

"This is a funny race...they really haven't really had a crack at anything. I think most agree this is probably one of the hardest races of the day..."

Alan Thomas then went on to list the three top tote horses as "some of the chances", noting that Racer's Success, in the top three, had only one win from 27 races and concluded with the unintentionally comical:

"Then you've got the rest of them struggling. So I think this is a struggle race for everybody here."

Alan Thomas did not refer to the Brisbane bookmaker betting market odds. The starting price market was 131%. That is equivalent to being offered $1.53 about the toss of a coin.

How would anyone like a total return, including your dollar, of $1.53 for guessing correctly heads or tails on the toss of a coin? That's what the Brisbane horse racing betting ring market odds was equivalent to.

Because true winning chances for horses are a matter of opinion, and not an obvious statistical fact like 50% for heads or tails, there is a chance that the bookies could get a horse's odds wrong.

But in horse racing markets of 130%+ there's not much chance of that. It's far more likely that every horse is significantly under its true winning chances - in other words, a guaranteed long term losing bet for every punter.

A betting market of 133% is equal to odds of $1.50 about the toss of a coin.
A betting market of 125% is equal to odds of $1.60 about the toss of a coin.
A betting market of 118% is equal to odds of $1.70 about the toss of a coin.
A betting market of 111% is equal to odds of $1.80 about the toss of a coin.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Favourites betting odds
Betting market percentage odds
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Canterbury betting tips from the track
Money talks - Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Money talks - Cheltenham, Doomben betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 21/3/2003
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

Back Tote Longshots?

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