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4/10/2008 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Randwick - 27/9/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Fiumicino
60.5kg.
1
2400
$2.50fav.
3/8
Doomben - 27/9/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
St Verdi
60kg.
5
1200
$9.00
10/13
Dance The Waves
60.5kg.
10
1110
$11.00
2/12
Cheltenham - 27/9/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Rebel Raider
59.5kg.
3
1453
$4.00
2/8
Keltah
59kg.
6
1453
$6.00
6/9
Eagle Farm - 20/9/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Danzamonkey
59kg.
8
1000
$4.20fav.
3/15
Cheltenham - 20/9/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Obglo
59kg.
8
1253
$5.00
4/10
Moonee Valley - 13/9/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Lucky Secret
59.5kg.
11
1000
$3.80fav.
1/11
Eagle Farm - 13/9/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Instructed
59.5kg.
5
1000
$10.00
2/9
Flemington - 6/9/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mandela
59.5kg.
4
2000
$9.50
5/12
Cat's Fun
59.5kg.
8
1700
$11.00
10/15
Eagle Farm - 6/9/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Hard To Catch
59.5kg.
4
1400
$9.00
4/6
Cheltenham - 6/9/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Rebel Raider
59kg.
1
1450
$3.00fav.
2/7
Caulfield - 30/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Sonic Quest
59.5kg.
1
1400
$5.50
13/13
Warwick Farm - 23/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
For Cruyff's Sake
59kg.
4
2400
$4.80
4/8
Hoystar
59kg.
7
1200
$2.70fav.
2/9
Doomben - 23/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Hard To Catch
60.5kg.
6
1350
$9.50
7/7
Instructed
59kg.
4
1200
$7.50
1/12
Morphettville - 23/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Perillo
59kg.
1
2048
$9.00
3/12
Rosehill - 16/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
O Danny Boy
59.5kg.
4
1300
$8.00
4/15
Star Of Crown
59kg.
4
1200
$6.50
1/13
Priceless Lad
59kg.
4
1100
$6.00
6/12
Caulfield - 16/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Sonic Quest
59.5kg.
1
1200
$8.00
8/16
Doomben - 16/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Polar Bear
60kg.
7
1650
$8.00
5/7
Rosehill - 9/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Hadaaf
60kg.
5
1800
$4.80
1/8
Rosehill - 2/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Bank Robber
59kg.
4
1200
$1.80fav.
6/13
Newton's Rings
59kg.
5
1500
$9.00
7/12
Caulfield - 2/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Gunfire Messiah
59kg.
11
1400
$5.00fav.
5/13
Morphettville - 2/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Ejaad
59.5kg.
7
1200
$6.00
7/11
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Do tote odds beat bookmaker betting odds?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The New Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small field: 27/9/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 20/9/2008 & 13/9/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 27/9/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 20/9/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 13/9/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 13/9/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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