Punt to Win
Betting on horses dropping back in distance in their current campaign from 1400 metres to 1200 metres and from 1200 metres to 1000 metres is usually a very risky proposition. A world champion like Black Caviar can do this and win. But even for your average Group 1 winner dropping back in distance is a very tough ask.
Only two weeks earlier Babinda Half won at Eagle Farm over 1350 metres.
Put very simply, how do you expect to get a horse up and running and trained properly to win a race over 1350 metres then back up just two weeks later over the sprint distance of 1000 metres?
Punters fell for it too. They must have used the false logic that if trainer Robert Bradshaw entered Babinda Half in the race then he had the gelding ready to sprint. It's just not so simple.
Punters taking the ridiculous unders saw Babinda Half lead but then weaken and finish a well beaten second to Algorithm. After all, Babinda Half had to set a much faster pace in a 1000 metres sprint when leading all the way in a leisurely clip over 1350 metres. You can't lead all the way over 1000 metres at the same leisurely pace.
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This edition of Punt to Win:
2011 Melbourne Cup Day
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