Punt to Win
Betting Horses First Up From a Spell
Last week at Rosehill the well supported 4YO gelding Riva De Lago was sent out as the $3.60 favourite and finished fourth. It was first up from a spell of over four months. While at Doomben the heavily backed 4YO gelding Cape Kidnappers, first up after a spell of four months, started at the prohibitive odds of $1.80 in a field of 11 horses and finished second, beaten a length.
So we had a check through our archives and found the following interesting information. Let's have a look at the bookmaker starting price odds of some horses that resumed from a spell at Randwick on a Saturday in February 2006:
Attend: $2.90 - heavily backed from $3.60
Flaming: $2.70 - heavily backed from $3.30
Mnemosyne: $2.50 - solid in the betting
Racing To Win : $2.50 - heavily backed from $2.80
Wild Queen : $3.70 - heavily backed from $4.40
These were the shortest price horses that resumed from a spell at Randwick. Every one of them lost. Not surprising really. There is no guarantee that a horse has come back well from a spell - even the money bet on it is no useful long term guide. Plenty of horses resume from a spell and never recapture their earlier two year old, three year old, four year old form etc...
Taking short odds about horses resuming from a spell is a guaranteed way to the punting poor house.
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2011 Melbourne Cup Day
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