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14/4/2012 edition

Betting Horses First Up From a Spell

Last week at Rosehill the well supported 4YO gelding Riva De Lago was sent out as the $3.60 favourite and finished fourth. It was first up from a spell of over four months. While at Doomben the heavily backed 4YO gelding Cape Kidnappers, first up after a spell of four months, started at the prohibitive odds of $1.80 in a field of 11 horses and finished second, beaten a length.

So we had a check through our archives and found the following interesting information. Let's have a look at the bookmaker starting price odds of some horses that resumed from a spell at Randwick on a Saturday in February 2006:

Attend: $2.90 - heavily backed from $3.60
Trainer: Bob Thomsen
Jockey: Jay Ford
Result: 5th. of 8

Flaming: $2.70 - heavily backed from $3.30
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Jockey: Danny Beasley
Result: 7th. of 10

Mnemosyne: $2.50 - solid in the betting
Trainer: John Hawkes
Jockey: Rod Quinn
Result: 4th. of 9

Racing To Win : $2.50 - heavily backed from $2.80
Trainer: John O'Shea
Jockey: Zac Purton
Result: 2nd. of 10 (beaten by over a length.)

Wild Queen : $3.70 - heavily backed from $4.40
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Jockey: Lenny Beasley
Result: 2nd. of 11 (beaten by 1.5 lengths.)

These were the shortest price horses that resumed from a spell at Randwick. Every one of them lost. Not surprising really. There is no guarantee that a horse has come back well from a spell - even the money bet on it is no useful long term guide. Plenty of horses resume from a spell and never recapture their earlier two year old, three year old, four year old form etc...

Taking short odds about horses resuming from a spell will lose you money. Following the betting odds money on horses at short odds resuming from a spell will lose you money.

Taking short odds about horses resuming from a spell is a guaranteed way to the punting poor house.

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This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses first up from a spell
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Winning Jockey free horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields & Group 1 results: 7/4/2012 & 31/3/2012
Betting favourites in small fields & Group 1 results: 24/3/2012 & 17/3/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 17/3/2012
Punt to Win index


2011 Melbourne Cup Day
Winners under $10.00
Best Bookmaker Win Odds
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Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $30 bet
Applegate 6.50 7.90 $42
Foxstar 4.00 5.00 $30
Dunaden 8.20 9.10 $27
Under The Eiffel 3.70 4.40 $21
Lamasery 4.50 5.00 $15
African Pulse 5.40 5.60 $6
Combat Kitty 3.50 3.70 $6


 

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