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14/4/2012 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 7th. April, 2012.

Firstly, on this day at Rosehill horse race track there were four Group 1 races held. Here are the results:

$400,000 Group 1 Storm Queen Stakes (registered name.)
Set weights. 3YO Fillies.
Distance: 2000 metres.
Winner: Mosheen
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
Starting price: $1.60 favourite
Second: Streama - beaten by a half length
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Guy Walter
Starting price: $2.90

$2,200,000 The Tancred Stakes (registered name.)
Standard Weight for Age. Three-Years-Old and Upwards.
Distance: 2400 metres.
Winner: Manighar
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Starting price: $4.00
Second: Americain - beaten by 1.5 lengths
Jockey: Gerald Mosse
Trainer: David Hayes
Starting price: $2.40 favourite

$400,000 Queen of the Turf Stakes (registered name.)
Standard Weight for Age. Three-Years-Old and Upwards. Fillies and Mares.
Distance: 1500 metres.
Winner: More Joyous
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Warterhouse
Starting price: $1.55 favourite
Second: Miss Keepsake - beaten by 2.5 lengths
Jockey: Christian Reith
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Starting price: $81.00

$3,500,000 Golden Slipper Stakes (registered name.)
Set Weights. Two-Years-Old.
Distance: 1200 metres.
Winner: Pierro
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Starting price: $6.50
Second: Snitzerland - beaten by 0.4 lengths
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Starting price: $26.00

Favourite: Samaready
Finishing position: 3rd. - beaten by 1.9 lengths
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price
Starting price: $2.80 favourite

Rosehill: Track Good.

R3 $400,000 3YO. Fillies. Group 1. Set Weights. Storm Queen Stakes. (Registered name.)
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Mosheen
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Robert Smerdon


Eagle Farm: Track Good.

R1 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1810 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Diago
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.95
Top fluctuation: $1.95
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Paul Hammersley
Trainer: Liam Birchley


Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 31st. March, 2012.

On this day at Rosehill horse race track the $500,000 Group 1 3YO Rosehill Guineas, with a big field of 18 three year olds, was run over 2000 metre.

The winner was 3YO gelding Laser Hawk, which was solid in the bookmaker betting at $5.50. Laser Hawk was ridden by Nash Rawiller and trained by Gai Waterhouse. Second, beaten by a half neck, was 3YO colt Ocean Park. Ocean Park was ridden by Glen Boss and trained by Gary Hennessy.

The $3.20 favourite, 3YO filly Silent Achiever, finished third, a long head behind Ocean Park. Silent Achiever was ridden by Hugh Bowman and trained by Roger James.

Rosehill
: Track Good.

R4 $175,000 3YO & UP. Group 2. Weight for Age. Challenge Stakes.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Rain Affair
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.85
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Joseph Pride


Moonee Valley: Track Dead R1, Good R2 - R8.

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Placement
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Katelyn Mallyon
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
Winner: Stole
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Jake Duffy
Trainer: Brian Jenkins

R2 $70,000 Mares. Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Forfeiture
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Vlad Duric
Trainer: Peter Snowden


Eagle Farm: Track Dead.

R1 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Interview
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Timothy Bell
Trainer: John P. Thompson
Winner: Mr Light Blue
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Barry Baldwin

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses first up from a spell
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Winning Jockey free horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields & Group 1 results: 7/4/2012 & 31/3/2012
Betting favourites in small fields & Group 1 results: 24/3/2012 & 17/3/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 17/3/2012
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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