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14/4/2012 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 24th. March, 2012.

On this day the $600,000 3YO & UP Fillies and Mares Group 1 TAD Kennedy Stakes (Registered name) run over 1500 metres and the $400,000 3YO & UP Group 1 Weight for Age Rawson Stakes (Registered name) - run over 2000 metres, were held at Rosehill horse racing track.

5YO mare Ofcourseican won the TAD Kennedy Stakes by a head from 4YO mare Secret Admirer. Ofcourseican, which firmed from $15.00 on track to start at $13.00, was ridden by Kathy O’Hara and trained by Ron Quinton. While Secret Admirer was ridden by Brenton Avdulla and trained by Grahame Begg. The disappointing $3.90 favourite was 4YO mare Steps In Time, which finished eighth in the field of 13, beaten by more than four lengths. Steps In Time was ridden by Jim Cassidy and trained by John O'Shea.

The Rawson Stakes was won by 6YO gelding Manighar, which started at $6.50. Manighar was ridden by Luke Nolen and trained by Peter G. Moody. Second by a half head was 7YO gelding Rangirangdoo which started at $17.00. Manighar was ridden by Corey Brown and trained by Chris Waller. The $3.10 favourite, 5YO gelding Shoot Out, also trained by Chris Waller, finished third, one length further back in the field of 13. Shoot Out was ridden by Hugh Bowman.

Rosehill: Track Dead.

R1 $300,000 Todman Stakes. 2YO Colts and Geldings. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Pierro
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.05
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R3 $300,000 2YO Fillies. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1110 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Samaready
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price


Caulfield: Track Heavy.

R3 3Y0,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Miss Octopussy
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.75
Jockey: Katelyn Mallyon
Trainer: Tom Hughes
Winner: Delabombell
Starting price: $11.00
Top fluctuation: $11.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.40
Jockey: Andrew Stead
Trainer: Barbara Joseph & Paul Jones


Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 17th. March, 2012.

On this day the $500,000 3YO Group 1 Royal Randwick Guineas, run over 1600 metres, was held.

It was won by 3YO filly Mosheen, which was firm at $4.20 second favourite bookmaker betting ring. Mosheen was trained by Robert Smerdon and ridden by Danny Nikolic.

Finishing second, beaten by just a neck, was 3YO gelding Said Com, which started at $26.00. It was trained by Chris Waller and ridden by Dwayne Dunn. While finishing third, just a half neck further back was the Gai Waterhouse trained 3YO gelding Laser Hawk, which started at $11.00. Its jockey was Nash Rawiller.

3YO gelding Manawanui, the $3.20 favourite, finished fifth, 1.4 lengths from the winner, Mosheen. Manawanui was trained by Ron Leemon and ridden by Tommy Berry.

Eagle Farm: Track Heavy.

R1 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Steel Zip
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Alexandra Kitson
Trainer: Pat Duff
Winner: Rockdale
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.20
Jockey: Luke Rolls
Trainer: John Morrisey

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses first up from a spell
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Winning Jockey free horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields & Group 1 results: 7/4/2012 & 31/3/2012
Betting favourites in small fields & Group 1 results: 24/3/2012 & 17/3/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 17/3/2012
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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