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4/6/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from last Saturday, May 29.

Randwick: Track Dead
R1 $45,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Outback Prince
Result: second
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.90
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: Anthony Cummings
Winner: Ankaret
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Todd Pannell
Trainer: John Hawkes

Moonee Valley: Track Slow
R2 $55,000 Listed. Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: About 3200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Mr. Fittler
Result: fell
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.95
Jockey: Brad McLean
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
Winner: Topzoff
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Adrian Garraway
Trainer: Peter Healey

Victoria Park: Track Slow
R1 $24,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Gold Member
Result: second
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.20
Jockey: Joe Bowditch
Trainer: Jeremy Gask
Winner: Ista Kareem
Starting price: $14.00
Top fluctuation: $17.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $16.40
Jockey: Jarrod Lorensini
Trainer: Jeremy Gask

This edition of Punt to Win:
Tabcorp takeover of TAB Ltd. - will punters be better off?
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick, Moonee Valley, betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 28/5/2004
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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