Punt to Win
We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."
Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.
In a handicap, by the time horses are handicapped with 60kg. (61kg. with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.
This table below shows how horses that carried 60kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a bookmaker starting price of $10.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We have eliminated any races where more than three horses carried at least 60kg. with a starting price of $10.00 or shorter. We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.
This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing wagering - correctly reviewing your betting wins and losses
The Free Lucky Seven horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 30/3/2013
Group 1 horse racing results: 23/3/2013
Group 1 horse racing results: 22/3/2013 & 16/3/2013
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 30/3/2013 & 23/3/2013
Betting favourites in small fields: 16/3/2013 & 15/3/2013
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 16/3/2013
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present
You Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.
|Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.|