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6/8/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from last Saturday, July 31.

Rosehill: Track Good
R5 $100,000 Group 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Spark Of Life
Result: first
Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Allan Denham

Moonee Valley: Track Dead
R4 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Vaincross
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.50
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: John Hickmott
Winner: Medieval Legend
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Brett Prebble
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form lines are irrelevant
Get those betting odds
Getting value betting odds on favourites in trifectas
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 23/7/2004
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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